Another-Football-Thrush
0xfab15a5700b92d9e213ab840dcb93b250864f0cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$20.62
Total PnL
$-216.97
Realised
$737.18
Win rate
50%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Pablo Carreno Busta Win the Cincinnati Open?
50 shares @ 0.1¢·now 10.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.03
$4.97
- YES
Will Zizou Bergs Win the Cincinnati Open?
50 shares @ 0.1¢·now 9.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.90
$4.85
- YES
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
50 shares @ 0.1¢·now 9.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.53
$4.47
- YES
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates hit the most home runs in the 2026 MLB regular season?
50 shares @ 0.1¢·now 2.8¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$1.40
$1.35
- YES
Will Sara Unger be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gotland?
50 shares @ 0.1¢·now 2.4¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$1.20
$1.15
- YES
Will Francesca Hong win Waukesha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?
50 shares @ 0.1¢·now 1.3¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.63
$0.57
- YES
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
50 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.28
$0.23
- YES
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
50 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.28
$0.23
- YES
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
50 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.25
$0.20
- YES
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
50 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.25
$0.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$0.05Aug 12, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on August 12?$0.01Aug 12, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 80-99 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?$0.03Aug 12, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.6 not released by August 31, 2026?$0.01Aug 12, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill StepFun be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?$0.01Aug 12, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill StepFun be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?$0.01Aug 12, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill StepFun be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?$0.01Aug 12, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.6 released on August 27, 2026?$0.05Aug 12, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Angie Craig win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?$0.03Aug 12, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.6 not released by August 31, 2026?$0.02Aug 12, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.6 released on August 26, 2026?$0.02Aug 12, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.6 not released by August 31, 2026?$0.02Aug 12, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on August 12?$0.05Aug 12, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $790 on August 12?$0.05Aug 12, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.6 released on August 28, 2026?$0.05Aug 12, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.6 released on August 12, 2026?$0.05Aug 12, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 12?$0.05Aug 12, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 12?$0.04Aug 12, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 12?$0.01Aug 12, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 12?$0.05Aug 12, 16:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
38 closed markets, 50% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 15:48 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 16:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.