Smoggy-Theology
0xfadb6c067341b7e2651b5919bb17ba7ae59ee3dc
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-587.62
Realised
$-78.25
Win rate
39%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 21?
160 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.87
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 13?
150 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.83
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?
110 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23?
107 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-6.24
- YES
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 26?
100 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-12.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22?
93 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14?
90 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-8.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 22?
90 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17?
85 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.88
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 22?$0.26Jul 22, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 21?$0.06Jul 21, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 21?$0.02Jul 21, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 21?$0.05Jul 21, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 21?$0.15Jul 21, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 21?$0.03Jul 21, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 21?$3.35Jul 21, 06:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 21?$5.27Jul 21, 06:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 21?$5.68Jul 21, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 21?$16.74Jul 21, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 21?$0.86Jul 21, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 21?$0.34Jul 21, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 21?$0.20Jul 21, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 21?$0.30Jul 21, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 21?$0.50Jul 21, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 21?$0.00Jul 21, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 21?$0.76Jul 21, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 21?$0.97Jul 21, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 21?$0.27Jul 21, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 21?$0.15Jul 21, 05:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
39% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
69 closed markets, 39% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 05:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 02:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.