Chief-Almanac
0xfadd08574d67033dd8f9196ece64258ca44f516e
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$18.47
Total PnL
$-4.53
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?
7 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$6.76
$1.76
- NO
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$1.45
$0.45
- YES
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
1 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$1.35
$0.35
- NO
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$1.28
$0.28
- NO
Maduro out in 2025?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.18
$0.18
- NO
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$1.14
$0.14
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$1.12
$0.12
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$1.09
$0.09
- YES
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's November 2025 meeting?
1 shares @ 95.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$1.04
$0.04
- YES
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
1 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.04
$0.04
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?$0.00Oct 23, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strikes Gaza by October 31?$0.00Oct 23, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket US go live in 2025?$1.00Oct 14, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 14?$1.00Oct 14, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?$1.00Oct 14, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro out in 2025?$1.00Oct 14, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$1.00Oct 14, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?$1.00Oct 14, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Gaza by October 31?$1.00Oct 14, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?$1.00Oct 14, 00:46 UTC
- TRADEBUY100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?$1.00Oct 14, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bolsonaro leave Brazil in 2025?$1.00Oct 11, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's November 2025 meeting?$1.00Oct 11, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYTikTok sale announced in 2025?$5.00Oct 11, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?$1.00Oct 11, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?$1.00Oct 11, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?$1.00Oct 11, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by November 10?$5.00Oct 11, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?$1.00Oct 11, 00:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $1.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 11, 00:57 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 23, 12:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.