Ill-Bargain
0xfaf4176be177759abc4f085c9bfa2748f9f0f860
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$12.95
Total PnL
$-4.05
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
2 shares @ 51.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$1.94
$0.94
- 76ERS
Heat vs. 76ers
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$1.89
$0.89
- NUGGETS
Celtics vs. Nuggets
2 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$1.64
$0.64
- PISTONS
Thunder vs. Pistons
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$1.59
$0.59
- WARRIORS
Warriors vs. Grizzlies
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$1.56
$0.56
- TIMBERWOLVES
Timberwolves vs. Clippers
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$1.49
$0.49
- ROCKETS
Rockets vs. Magic
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$1.43
$0.43
- SPURS
Spurs vs. Raptors
1 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$1.41
$0.41
- YES
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.01
$-0.99
- YES
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?
51 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTimberwolves vs. Clippers$1.00Feb 24, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYLakers vs. Suns$1.00Feb 24, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYKings vs. Mavericks$1.00Feb 24, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYRockets vs. Magic$1.00Feb 24, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYHeat vs. 76ers$1.00Feb 24, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYCeltics vs. Nuggets$1.00Feb 24, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYCavaliers vs. Bucks$1.00Feb 24, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYThunder vs. Pistons$1.00Feb 24, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWarriors vs. Grizzlies$1.00Feb 24, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Raptors$1.00Feb 24, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?$1.00Nov 12, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?$1.00Oct 22, 09:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be less than $4600 on August 15 at 5PM ET?$1.92Oct 22, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?$1.00Oct 6, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?$1.00Aug 25, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be less than $4600 on August 15 at 5PM ET?$1.00Aug 15, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce Kevin Warsh to replace Kugler?$1.00Aug 6, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?$1.00Jul 29, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$1.00Jul 21, 11:18 UTC
- REDEEMGrok 4 released by September 30?$1.00Jul 21, 11:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 08:41 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 24, 08:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.