Guilty-Bonsai
0xfb18518465cb1639b8389fd5cbc2935a0a70b732
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$90.00
Realised
$147.43
Win rate
92%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will NDP win between 16 and 20 seats in the next Canadian Election?
80 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.16
- YES
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?
80 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-8.39
- YES
Will the People's Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?
80 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-8.39
- YES
Will NDP win between 21 and 25 seats in the next Canadian Election?
80 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.16
- YES
Will another party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in the next Canadian Election?
60 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-0.80
- YES
Will the Liberals win less than 100 seats in the next Canadian Election?
50 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-2.46
- YES
Will the Liberals win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Election?
50 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-2.46
- YES
Will the Liberals win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?
50 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-2.46
- YES
Will the Liberals win between 180-189 seats in the next Canadian Election?
50 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-2.46
- YES
Will the Liberals win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?
50 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-2.46
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in the next Canadian Election?$0.06Apr 30, 00:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Liam Lawson win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?$0.01Apr 30, 00:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nico Hülkenberg win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?$0.01Apr 30, 00:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?$0.01Apr 30, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jack Doohan win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?$0.01Apr 30, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?$0.01Apr 30, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alex Albon win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?$0.01Apr 30, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Isack Hadjar win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?$0.01Apr 30, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Esteban Ocon win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?$0.01Apr 30, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oliver Bearman win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?$0.01Apr 30, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lance Stroll win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?$0.03Apr 30, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill both OP_CTV and OP_CAT be activated in 2025?$0.21Apr 30, 00:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 'Delicious in Dungeon' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025?$0.12Apr 30, 00:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 'Kaiju No. 8' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025?$0.28Apr 30, 00:33 UTC
- MERGEWill the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2?$6.00Apr 30, 00:33 UTC
- MERGEWill the Liberals win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian Election?$10.00Apr 30, 00:32 UTC
- MERGEWill the Liberals win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?$10.00Apr 30, 00:32 UTC
- MERGEWill 'Thunderbolts' gross more than $82m on opening weekend?$20.00Apr 30, 00:31 UTC
- MERGEWill 'Thunderbolts' gross between $77m and 82m on opening weekend?$20.00Apr 30, 00:31 UTC
- MERGEWill 'Thunderbolts' gross between $72m and 77m on opening weekend?$20.00Apr 30, 00:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $5.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 09:36 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 30, 00:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.