Likely-Deed
0xfb19936e995efcafe031e76f36f479edcfa5f776
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$0.62
Total PnL
$-21.68
Realised
$0.50
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on July 3?
1236 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.62
$-0.62
- YES
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?
10501 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.50
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- RETHINK
Map Handicap: RT (-1.5) vs STEP (+1.5)
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 1?
1415 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.41
- YES
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?
1350 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 2?
1200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 27?
1160 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 30?
550 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on July 3?$1.30Jul 3, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 2?$1.00Jul 2, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 2?$0.00Jul 2, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 2?$0.21Jul 2, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 1?$1.49Jul 1, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 30?$1.16Jun 30, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$5.96Jun 30, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on June 30?$0.09Jun 29, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$0.01Jun 29, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$0.30Jun 29, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$0.13Jun 29, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$0.01Jun 29, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$0.37Jun 28, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$0.33Jun 28, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$0.10Jun 28, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$0.09Jun 28, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$0.02Jun 28, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$0.09Jun 28, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$0.18Jun 28, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?$0.01Jun 28, 13:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $11.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 12:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 14:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.