Mushy-South
0xfb1f357b2372dcf6b24cba3e4018278d33d14904
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
80
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-80.02
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 23?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 11?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 14?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 12?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be 80°F or higher on May 30?$1.05May 28, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or below on May 27?$1.04May 25, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 27?$1.04May 25, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on May 25?$1.05May 25, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 25?$1.05May 24, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 25?$1.05May 24, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 23?$1.05May 22, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 23?$1.05May 22, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 23?$1.05May 22, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 23?$1.04May 22, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 23?$1.05May 22, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 23?$1.04May 22, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 23?$1.05May 22, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 13?$1.05May 11, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 12?$1.05May 11, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 12?$1.04May 11, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 12?$1.05May 11, 12:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 11?$0.00May 11, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 11?$1.04May 10, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 11?$1.05May 10, 16:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 30, 00:33 UTC
- Last active
- May 28, 08:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.