That-Marble
0xfb47b75caa4c27485e2472b431c46ddca85e8fce
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-356.06
Realised
$5.19
Win rate
95%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
250 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.33
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
250 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.33
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
150 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
150 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
150 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
100 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.33
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
100 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.33
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET$2.05May 17, 04:24 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$1.08May 17, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$1.03May 17, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$1.00May 17, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$1.10May 17, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$1.01May 17, 02:56 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$1.04May 17, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$1.00May 17, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$1.00May 13, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$1.00May 13, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$1.00May 13, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$1.00May 13, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$4.14May 13, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$2.07May 13, 10:15 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$1.96May 13, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$1.04May 13, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$1.03May 13, 09:45 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$2.17May 13, 09:45 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$9.09May 13, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$1.04May 13, 09:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
95% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $1.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 03:46 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 04:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.