Drafty-Detection
0xfb5bac89ad352fa15dbffdb6018848098c85bd6a
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$0.91
Total PnL
$-485.17
Realised
$-54.28
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?
80 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.52
$-3.48
- YES
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?
77 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.39
$-4.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 12?
2306 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5PM ET
1144 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-47.00
- NO
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 6-12?
976 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-17.17
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
212 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
208 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-29.29
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
200 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
189 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-19.96
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
167 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$14.28Feb 17, 14:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$23.08Feb 17, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?$8.93Feb 2, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$8.40Feb 2, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$9.09Feb 1, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 16:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?$33.44Feb 1, 16:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $13.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 12, 18:04 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 17, 14:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.