Jovial-Guilder
0xfb633d1e4e16d85a58802c1fd252c8523c1c6c51
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$27.63
Total PnL
$6.63
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
29 shares @ 17.2¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.77
$6.77
- YES
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
7 shares @ 69.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.89
$-0.11
- YES
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
139 shares @ 0.7¢·now 1.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.67
$0.67
- YES
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
6 shares @ 34.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.65
$-0.35
- YES
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
15 shares @ 6.5¢·now 8.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?
3 shares @ 31.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$1.24
$0.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 30?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 29?
2 shares @ 42.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.96
$-0.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 29?
22 shares @ 4.5¢·now 3.9¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.86
$-0.14
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 29?$1.03Jun 28, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 29?$1.05Jun 28, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 30?$1.05Jun 28, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 30?$1.04Jun 28, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?$1.03Jun 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 29?$1.05Jun 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$1.00Jun 27, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$2.05Jun 27, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$5.06Jun 27, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$1.00Jun 27, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$1.00Jun 27, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$5.17Jun 27, 14:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $1.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 14:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 28, 13:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.