Shiny-Theater
0xfb8168544dd353cbba3fca436864472c2100b1f2
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$83.44
Total PnL
$-456.02
Realised
$-1.89
Win rate
2%
53 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 12?
23 shares @ 65.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$21.46
$6.46
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 11?
19 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$18.74
$3.74
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 13?
22 shares @ 68.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$15.22
$0.22
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 13?
24 shares @ 62.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$14.27
$-0.73
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 12?
16 shares @ 64.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$8.73
$-1.34
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 11?
5 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$5.00
$1.65
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 11?
24 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.01
$-14.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 30?
3215 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-25.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 29?
1853 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-14.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 23?
374 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 13?$15.24Aug 11, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 13?$15.28Aug 11, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 10?$11.36Aug 11, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 10?$20.00Aug 11, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 12?$10.25Aug 10, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 12?$15.26Aug 10, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 8?$11.72Aug 10, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 7?$8.00Aug 10, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 7?$12.93Aug 10, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 9?$12.93Aug 10, 02:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 9?$5.00Aug 10, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 11?$15.15Aug 10, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 11?$3.41Aug 9, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 11?$15.28Aug 9, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 10?$15.19Aug 9, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 10?$7.63Aug 8, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 10?$7.65Aug 8, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 9?$3.70Aug 8, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 9?$5.47Aug 7, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 9?$7.66Aug 7, 16:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 53 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
53 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $8.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 16:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 16:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 53 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.