Light-Item
0xfbf4520c6bd27a523e474929f144663ab3da4a70
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
36
Open notional
$2.60
Total PnL
$-224.92
Realised
$-12.82
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$1.29
$0.29
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.88
$-0.13
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
61 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.34
$-0.66
- YES
Trump out as President by June 30?
16 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.11
$-0.87
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Military action against Iran ends on April 26, 2026?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
2857 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
2500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
2325 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?
1250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$5.00Apr 17, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by April 30?$10.00Apr 15, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by April 30?$10.00Apr 15, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by June 30?$1.00Apr 13, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?$1.00Apr 13, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?$1.00Apr 13, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?$1.00Apr 13, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?$2.00Apr 13, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?$3.00Apr 13, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?$2.00Apr 13, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?$1.00Apr 13, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by April 30?$5.00Apr 13, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US withdraw from NATO by April 30?$5.00Apr 13, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$10.00Apr 13, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilitary action against Iran ends on April 26, 2026?$2.00Apr 12, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilitary action against Iran ends on April 26, 2026?$1.00Apr 12, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilitary action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?$1.00Apr 12, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilitary action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026?$1.00Apr 12, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilitary action against Iran ends on April 17, 2026?$1.00Apr 12, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilitary action against Iran ends on April 16, 2026?$1.00Apr 12, 21:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 23:02 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 17, 15:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.