Reliable-Donor
0xfbf9a966910d7600ab5ba4b06c1b2ac7e5ee1cc3
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
158
Open notional
$48.00
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-98.02
Win rate
23%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 158- NO
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $100 end of July?
105 shares @ 16.9¢·now 17.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$18.79
$1.05
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?
103 shares @ 8.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$15.96
$7.72
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
151 shares @ 6.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$12.84
$3.77
- NO
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $90 end of July?
7 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.39
$-0.17
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?
2 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.01
$-0.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10?
10153 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-31.12
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 4?
5992 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-5.99
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 14?
4576 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-10.13
- YES
Will Solana dip to $60 in February?
3951 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-130.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?$8.54Jul 27, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?$9.66Jul 27, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX (SPCX) close above $90 end of July?$0.56Jul 27, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX (SPCX) close above $100 end of July?$17.75Jul 22, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in July?$0.16Jul 22, 06:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in July?$0.24Jul 22, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on July 21?$2.10Jul 21, 06:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in July?$0.58Jul 21, 06:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?$0.54Jul 21, 06:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?$1.07Jul 21, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in July?$3.22Jul 18, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?$1.03Jul 18, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in July?$1.77Jul 18, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?$0.70Jul 18, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,700 July 6-12?$3.83Jul 9, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,700 on July 9?$2.13Jul 9, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on July 4?$2.18Jul 4, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 4?$2.64Jul 4, 06:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?$4.76Jul 4, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on July 3?$0.76Jul 3, 20:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
31 closed markets, 23% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 06:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 11:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.