0xfc0373758b97b104c7cdffdadbdabe5bee1c9cc0
0xfc0373758b97b104c7cdffdadbdabe5bee1c9cc0
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
7
Open notional
$66.48
Total PnL
$4.12
Realised
$-0.56
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?
53 shares @ 36.4¢·now 44.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$23.65
$4.29
- NO
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be at least $345,000 on September 30?
23 shares @ 86.9¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$19.79
$-0.10
- YES
Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?
20 shares @ 73.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$15.50
$0.71
- YES
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
18 shares @ 20.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$3.41
$-0.09
- YES
Will HBO Max win the most Emmys?
3 shares @ 69.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$2.14
$-0.02
- YES
Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
18 shares @ 5.9¢·now 5.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.02
$-0.03
- YES
Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
15 shares @ 7.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$0.97
$-0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$1.10Jul 25, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$1.10Jul 25, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$1.09Jul 25, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$1.09Jul 25, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$0.86Jul 25, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?$3.63Jul 25, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?$3.49Jul 25, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?$20.07Jul 25, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in the Chicago Metro be at least $345,000 on September 30?$20.12Jul 25, 12:08 UTC
- TRADESELLO/U 1.5 Rounds$13.31Jul 25, 10:33 UTC
- TRADESELLO/U 1.5 Rounds$13.31Jul 25, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYO/U 1.5 Rounds$20.02Jul 25, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYO/U 1.5 Rounds$20.02Jul 25, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)$2.01Jul 25, 10:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)$12.65Jul 25, 10:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)$4.76Jul 25, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)$20.04Jul 25, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)$6.76Jul 25, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)$2.02Jul 25, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$1.09Jul 25, 04:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $7.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 02:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 15:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.