Agitated-Vision
0xfc0b1518ba70d17e2a35eb289cc8271a866ca782
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$50.13
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$-89.99
Win rate
32%
56 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 30?
63 shares @ 47.5¢·now 49.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$30.94
$0.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 29?
22 shares @ 46.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$11.96
$1.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?
21 shares @ 24.3¢·now 31.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$6.46
$1.46
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 29?
128 shares @ 17.9¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.71
$-22.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 29?
64 shares @ 18.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.03
$-11.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 29?
33 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.02
$-12.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 29?
22 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.01
$-1.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on April 23?
1042 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-6.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 23?
1035 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-8.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 15?
1029 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-47.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 29?$3.09Jul 29, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 29?$1.05Jul 29, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 29?$1.05Jul 29, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 29?$10.31Jul 29, 01:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?$16.23Jul 29, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 29?$2.09Jul 28, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?$5.19Jul 28, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 30?$10.26Jul 28, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 30?$10.26Jul 28, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 29?$27.50Jul 28, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 30?$10.26Jul 28, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 29?$10.27Jul 28, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 29?$10.34Jul 28, 22:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 29?$30.75Jul 28, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?$1.02Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?$5.12Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?$10.24Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 29?$10.15Jul 28, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 29?$10.15Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 29?$5.08Jul 28, 17:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
32% win rate over 56 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
56 closed markets, 32% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $10.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 03:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 56 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.