Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.8K

Realised

$-113.39

Win rate

41 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 76

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET
2500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET
600 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-318.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
600 shares @ 16.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-97.99
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
512 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
500 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-193.99
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
423 shares @ 47.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-202.09
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
400 shares @ 40.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-162.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
400 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-43.70
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
400 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
400 shares @ 58.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-233.99

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$36.23Aug 9, 11:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$25.54Aug 9, 11:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$25.93Aug 3, 01:03 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$10.76Aug 3, 01:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$5.19Aug 3, 00:59 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$37.88Jul 31, 13:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$25.59Jul 31, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$34.54Jul 28, 09:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$5.11Jul 28, 09:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$5.15Jul 28, 09:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$5.16Jul 28, 09:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$5.15Jul 28, 09:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$26.57Jul 23, 00:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$26.35Jul 23, 00:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$104.02Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$12.70Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$28.49Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$48.29Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$15.73Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$282.80Jul 18, 02:16 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

7% win rate over 41 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

41 closed markets, 7% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity54 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry51 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk32 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 43
Avg trade size: $34.17
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 7, 06:32 UTC
Last active: Aug 9, 11:36 UTC
Win rate sample: 41 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 08:33:05 UTC·src:Polymarket Data