Quixotic-Moody
0xfc18e025fcc534c372eab714df76397480f5ce62
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$1.45
Total PnL
$-48.09
Realised
$5.71
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.45
$0.45
- NO
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?
125 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- INNER CIRCLE ESPORTS
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
45 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- LIQUID
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner
43 shares @ 25.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
38 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- GENTLE MATES
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- BETBOOM TEAM
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner
31 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.25
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?$1.05Jun 10, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$1.01Mar 9, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$1.00Mar 9, 23:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election?$2.31Mar 9, 23:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia invade another country in 2026?$0.95Mar 9, 23:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?$8.53Mar 9, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?$7.98Mar 9, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$1.02Mar 9, 21:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$1.04Mar 9, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$1.00Feb 20, 20:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$10.41Feb 20, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$10.00Feb 20, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$1.00Feb 20, 17:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$5.00Feb 20, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$5.00Feb 20, 08:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$1.64Feb 20, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$1.00Feb 20, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$1.00Feb 20, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.02Feb 20, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.00Feb 20, 07:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $25.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 20:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 21:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.