Thrifty-Dungeon
0xfc1f2cdad82b15b8191b9985dd1ac70441bca246
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$5.4K
Total PnL
$36.73
Realised
$-88.24
Win rate
33%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
510 shares @ 73.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$436.12
$61.12
- YES
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?
580 shares @ 64.7¢·now 61.8¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$358.05
$-16.94
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?
304 shares @ 82.4¢·now 93.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$282.30
$32.30
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in August?
291 shares @ 86.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$274.74
$24.74
- NO
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
299 shares @ 83.6¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$264.73
$14.73
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
289 shares @ 86.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$261.21
$11.21
- YES
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?
288 shares @ 86.7¢·now 86.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$249.50
$-0.50
- YES
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
402 shares @ 62.2¢·now 61.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$245.10
$-4.90
- NO
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?
298 shares @ 83.8¢·now 79.0¢·exp Aug 30, 2026$235.57
$-14.43
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?
213 shares @ 85.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$201.21
$20.18
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$109.90Aug 17, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$248.94Aug 17, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?$63.45Aug 17, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$62.50Aug 17, 12:32 UTC
- TRADESELLReserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?$8.41Aug 17, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $183 Week of August 17 2026?$11.49Aug 17, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?$17.79Aug 17, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 17?$15.84Aug 17, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22?$59.90Aug 17, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?$125.00Aug 17, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 17?$15.88Aug 17, 11:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 17?$31.64Aug 17, 11:22 UTC
- REDEEMPhoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky$0.00Aug 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMNational Bank Open: Tatjana Maria vs Caty McNally$0.00Aug 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 30?$0.00Aug 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by July 31?$0.00Aug 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?$0.00Aug 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in July?$0.00Aug 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.00Aug 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$0.00Aug 17, 10:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $83.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 00:43 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 18:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.