Favorable-Paradise
0xfc2d697e0d4c1181eebdc05f64804764aeec063f
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$330.07
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$27.44
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1927 shares @ 25.9¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$279.48
$-220.52
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
1080 shares @ 11.8¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$33.49
$-93.51
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
2280 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.10
$-52.90
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?
2461 shares @ 26.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-652.67
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
2000 shares @ 47.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-950.58
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
2000 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-259.00
- YES
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?
733 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-110.00
- YES
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
638 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-172.26
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$127.00Mar 4, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$70.00Mar 4, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$500.00Mar 4, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$2.0KJan 12, 20:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?$1.08Dec 1, 00:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?$22.12Dec 1, 00:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?$28.00Dec 1, 00:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?$221.63Nov 26, 22:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$420.43Oct 1, 18:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$496.10Oct 1, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$382.00Sep 8, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$32.00Sep 1, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$391.00Sep 1, 06:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$300.00Sep 1, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$32.00Aug 29, 04:45 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5 scores ≥ 70% on FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31?$4.20Aug 7, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5 scores ≥ 70% on FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31?$10.20Aug 7, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$273.00Aug 7, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-5 be released on August 7?$463.00Aug 6, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5 be released on August 7?$490.00Aug 6, 17:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $88.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 02:55 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 4, 21:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.