Watery-Beet
0xfc64e11b8f6b78d98ce5907000020fa9cfbd96fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$15.59
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$-1.3K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?
98 shares @ 5.1¢·now 5.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.68
$0.68
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
278 shares @ 1.8¢·now 1.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.58
$-0.42
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 24?
279 shares @ 1.8¢·now 1.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$2.79
$-2.21
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 31?
212 shares @ 2.4¢·now 1.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.54
$-2.46
- YES
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-30?
562 shares @ 89.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-500.00
- YES
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-05-30?
510 shares @ 98.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-500.00
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
183 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-181.41
- LAKERS
Lakers vs. Rockets
181 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-48.90
- MAYA JOINT
Roland Garros WTA: Maya Joint vs Anastasia Potapova
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- BANGLADESH
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh
128 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$110.97Jul 22, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$9.87Jul 22, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$100.07Jul 22, 14:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$2.19Jul 22, 12:13 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$103.12Jul 22, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$100.21Jul 22, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$1.05Jul 22, 07:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$13.89Jul 22, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$5.18Jul 22, 06:34 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$10.54Jul 21, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$10.44Jul 21, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$1.06Jul 21, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?$5.00Jul 21, 07:02 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$101.01Jul 21, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$100.07Jul 21, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 31?$3.00Jul 21, 03:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 24?$3.00Jul 21, 03:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 31?$2.00Jul 21, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 24?$2.00Jul 21, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House$5.20Jul 20, 13:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$25.4K
Trades
2
Buy share
79%
Window
May 17, 18:00 UTC → May 23, 02:22 UTC
- BUYSpurs vs. Thunder$7.0K@96¢May 21, 02:45 UTC
- BUYIndian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad$7.0K@98¢May 18, 17:58 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 4 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
79%
Sample
limited
4 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Spurs vs. Thunder
$7.0K · 28% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $60.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 10:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 15:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.