Prize-Berry
0xfcbe281f11f195423fdf458582e1215790b7aa8b
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
194
Open notional
$2.12
Total PnL
$-137.5K
Realised
$-137.5K
Win rate
12%
130 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 194- YES
[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 47.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 10, 2024$2.10
$1.10
- FAULCONER
Who will get more votes in the 2021 California recall election: Paffrath, Faulconer, or Cox?
1 shares @ 0.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.02
$0.02
- YES
NBA: Will the Clippers beat the Mavericks by more than 5.5 points in their November 23rd matchup?
22224 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 23, 2021$0.00
$0.00
- YES
Will the top song on Spotify Charts hit 50M global streams for the week ending on November 18?
3319 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2021$0.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Lewis Hamilton finish ahead of Max Verstappen in the Saudi Arabian Gran Prix?
3054 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2021$0.00
$0.00
- CHARGERS
Chargers (-3.5) v. Cowboys Spread
3041 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 19, 2021$0.00
$0.00
- NO
NBA: Will the Hawks beat the Hornets by more than 6.5 points in their November 20th matchup?
2926 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2021$0.00
$0.00
- YES
NFL: Will the Raiders beat the Giants by more than 2.5 points in their November 7th matchup?
2924 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2021$0.00
$0.00
- YES
NBA: Will the Bucks beat the Magic by more than 11.5 points in their November 20th matchup?
2877 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2021$0.00
$0.00
- YES
NBA: Will the Wizards beat the Cavaliers by more than 3.5 points in their December 3 matchup?
2865 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 3, 2021$0.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill 'The Exorcist: Believer' gross over $28m opening weekend?$0.01Oct 5, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Inter Miami win MLS Cup?$0.10Aug 31, 19:46 UTC
- REDEEMWhat will the price of $DYDX be on September 29, 2021?$0.19Aug 4, 01:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
12% win rate over 130 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
130 closed markets, 12% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $0.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 01:53 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 5, 21:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 130 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.