Narrow-Knowledge
0xfcc4d221ba6e9218d99480b09c331cedd2e7f3da
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$166.64
Total PnL
$-141.25
Realised
$-8.20
Win rate
30%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Will Neither Win More Games at the Dota EWC 2026?
100 shares @ 77.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$51.50
$-25.50
- YES
Will Bilibili Gaming Make Finals at MSI 2026
50 shares @ 80.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$39.25
$-0.75
- NO
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
50 shares @ 74.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$33.26
$-3.75
- NO
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by July 31?
50 shares @ 75.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$29.75
$-7.75
- YES
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa?
36 shares @ 26.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$4.52
$-4.88
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?
3 shares @ 65.0¢·now 67.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.93
$0.08
- YES
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on July 6?
110 shares @ 2.9¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$1.77
$-1.44
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 6?
2 shares @ 77.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$1.52
$0.03
- YES
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of July 6 2026?
4 shares @ 32.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$1.19
$-0.02
- YES
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.86
$0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$37.19Jul 6, 15:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on July 6?$0.80Jul 6, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on July 6?$0.11Jul 6, 15:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $600B by July 31?$34.58Jul 6, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $600B by July 31?$35.17Jul 6, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?$29.52Jul 6, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?$33.16Jul 6, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?$29.59Jul 6, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 6?$21.88Jul 6, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 6?$23.62Jul 6, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$10.20Jul 6, 14:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill White House post 160-179 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$4.20Jul 6, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 160-179 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$4.46Jul 6, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by July 31?$37.69Jul 6, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Mount Rushmore" this week?$1.42Jul 6, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on July 6?$1.00Jul 6, 14:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8?$28.42Jul 6, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8?$28.80Jul 6, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?$29.89Jul 6, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?$0.85Jul 6, 14:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $19.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 12:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 15:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.