Narrow-Knowledge
0xfcc4d221ba6e9218d99480b09c331cedd2e7f3da
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$25.99
Total PnL
$-25.02
Realised
$39.00
Win rate
20%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Linera listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE?
20 shares @ 76.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Feb 1, 2028$6.10
$-9.10
- NO
Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?
20 shares @ 37.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Sep 3, 2026$5.60
$-1.80
- YES
Will Cyril Xaba be the next mayor of eThekwini?
20 shares @ 37.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$4.80
$-2.60
- YES
Will Andrés Mijes Llovera win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?
80 shares @ 10.8¢·now 5.8¢·exp Jun 6, 2027$4.64
$-4.00
- YES
Will Yomelela Tyali be the next mayor of Buffalo City?
20 shares @ 17.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$1.70
$-1.70
- YES
Will Roy Charlie Arbaiza Corcuera win the next Trujillo mayoral elections?
20 shares @ 17.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.30
$-2.10
- YES
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribed" during his next YouTube video?
60 shares @ 9.3¢·now 2.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$1.20
$-4.38
- YES
Will Les Républicains hold fewer than 117 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?
20 shares @ 6.0¢·now 3.2¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.64
$-0.56
- YES
Will Kael Penta in LPL Split 3 2026?
4 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.01
$-0.21
- NO
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 in August?
40 shares @ 19.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.00
$-7.84
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?$1.60Aug 20, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?$1.71Aug 20, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?$13.02Aug 20, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?$14.67Aug 20, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$2.91Aug 20, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$3.06Aug 20, 20:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in August 2026?$0.99Aug 20, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in August 2026?$0.99Aug 20, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mamdani say "Community" during his announcement?$9.03Aug 20, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mamdani say "Community" during his announcement?$6.43Aug 20, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mamdani say "Community" during his announcement?$2.89Aug 20, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon anyone by September 30?$9.80Aug 20, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon anyone by September 30?$10.05Aug 20, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?$7.44Aug 20, 20:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?$27.20Aug 20, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYLinera listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE?$15.28Aug 20, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?$34.37Aug 20, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?$37.81Aug 20, 19:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?$13.02Aug 20, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?$52.40Aug 20, 19:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $8.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 18:20 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 20:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.