Musty-Poll
0xfcc9a6f76b4d6902af4e558d5fe35c03a881fed5
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-136.16
Realised
$-45.68
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 28?
229 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.06
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 25?
164 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 26?
129 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.87
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 28?
115 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.03
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 20?
112 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.47
- SAN FRANCISCO DONS
San Francisco Dons vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
101 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-4.97
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 21?
95 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.31
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 3AM ET
94 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.41
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 30?
90 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.44
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on March 21?
75 shares @ 28.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-21.30
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on July 11?$124.22Jul 11, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on July 11?$123.10Jul 10, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on June 28?$2.20Jun 27, 23:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $80 on May 27?$118.45May 27, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on May 27?$116.79May 26, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 25?$1.92May 25, 01:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 11?$36.88May 15, 05:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 8?$90.81May 8, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 8?$88.63May 8, 03:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on April 26?$99.88May 8, 03:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 24?$0.00May 1, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on April 26?$98.08Apr 25, 17:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 6?$115.13Apr 25, 17:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 28?$0.00Apr 13, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 11?$33.56Apr 11, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 6?$0.13Apr 6, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 6?$113.62Apr 6, 04:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 1?$132.70Apr 6, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 1?$131.24Apr 1, 00:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on January 30?$0.00Mar 31, 19:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $53.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 28, 15:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 17:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.