Hard-Lumber
0xfcceaf96d7de4efde4e37e3811400e847db1ae02
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
2
Open notional
$10.00
Total PnL
$7.50
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Biden announce resignation by July 31?$0.00Sep 7, 21:46 UTC
- REDEEMTikTok sale announced before August?$0.00Sep 7, 21:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill U.S. inflation be more than 0.9% from May to June 2022?$2.48Jul 22, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon tweet 80-89 times?$10.00Jul 22, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYTikTok banned in the US in 2024?$1.00Jul 11, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYTikTok sale announced before August?$1.00Jul 11, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 80-89 times?$9.74Jul 11, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwell airdrop by September 30?$1.50Jul 11, 08:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kim Kardashian announce she’s pregnant by July 31, 2022?$0.00Jul 11, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Biden announce resignation by July 31?$0.71Jul 11, 08:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill $ETH be above $1,000 on July 8?$0.00Jul 11, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Turkish Lira (TRY) price fall below $0.05 by the end of September 2022?$0.00Jul 11, 08:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $2.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 08:35 UTC
- Last active
- Sep 7, 21:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.