Favorable-Shape
0xfcdc071df7080c214196bb0b3b751e5417f9d8e3
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-25.9K
Realised
$3.6K
Win rate
88%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
1794 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-136.34
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
1677 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-88.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
1199 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-77.49
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET
1134 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-108.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
1003 shares @ 18.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-188.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
906 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-111.20
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
899 shares @ 24.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-217.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
878 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-112.68
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
859 shares @ 18.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-160.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
857 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-119.84
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$1.26Jul 21, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$1.26Jul 21, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$1.26Jul 21, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$3.79Jul 21, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2AM ET$3.50Jul 21, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2AM ET$7.12Jul 21, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2AM ET$11.17Jul 21, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$1.47Jul 21, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$1.51Jul 21, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$2.41Jul 21, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$1.22Jul 21, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2AM ET$8.23Jul 21, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2AM ET$8.43Jul 21, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$2.98Jul 21, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$3.58Jul 21, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$3.66Jul 21, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$0.31Jul 21, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2AM ET$9.02Jul 21, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$4.86Jul 21, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$1.51Jul 21, 06:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $4.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 05:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 06:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.