Self-Reliant-Referendum
0xfd09ec2b552ef32e94263779515edfdf6e7f63c7
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$116.72
Total PnL
$-137.27
Realised
$-33.19
Win rate
40%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- NO
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
17 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$17.00
$3.23
- YES
Will António José Seguro win the first round?
13 shares @ 45.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$13.00
$7.12
- YES
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?
12 shares @ 36.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$12.00
$7.68
- YES
Will "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
12 shares @ 11.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$12.00
$10.68
- NO
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
11 shares @ 82.7¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.77
$1.67
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?
9 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$9.00
$1.17
- YES
Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31?
6 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$6.00
$2.52
- YES
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
5 shares @ 82.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.00
$0.90
- NO
Up Only podcast released by February 28, 2026?
5 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.00
$1.10
- NO
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 18, 2026?
4 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$4.00
$1.48
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.32Jan 16, 00:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$0.22Jan 16, 00:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?$4.05Jan 16, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.32Jan 16, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$23.14Jan 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?$0.90Jan 15, 23:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?$1.62Jan 15, 23:51 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?$7.92Jan 15, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$2.59Jan 15, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?$10.56Jan 15, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?$12.32Jan 15, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUp Only podcast released by February 28, 2026?$3.90Jan 15, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António José Seguro win the first round?$2.26Jan 15, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António José Seguro win the first round?$3.62Jan 15, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?$2.10Jan 15, 22:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?$11.48Jan 15, 22:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$4.40Jan 15, 22:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$14.08Jan 15, 22:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?$2.70Jan 15, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?$3.60Jan 15, 22:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $8.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 15, 20:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 16, 00:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".