Esteemed-Felony
0xfd1d492ab7eb2973f813bcc5a416101256510416
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
138
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-390.49
Realised
$8.18
Win rate
82%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 138- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 5AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 52 million views on day 2?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 10AM ET
631 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.63
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
464 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
85 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-27.31
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$1.88Jul 13, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$1.15Jul 13, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$3.94Jul 7, 09:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$0.00Jul 7, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$1.14Jul 7, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$5.14Jul 7, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$1.15Jul 7, 09:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$5.39Jul 7, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$5.09Jul 7, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.14Jul 7, 09:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$4.10Jul 7, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.05Jul 7, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.01Jul 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.72Jul 7, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.15Jul 7, 08:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$9.23Jul 7, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$6.15Jul 7, 08:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$6.00Jul 7, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$0.49Jul 7, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$3.64Jul 7, 08:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $2.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 07:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 10:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.