Polite-Restriction
0xfd43746082d3a202ec4591d3c394694d37ee0bd4
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
30
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-63.13
Realised
$0.46
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 1?
24 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025$0.00
$-2.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
16 shares @ 43.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 22, 2025$0.00
$-7.08
- YES
Will anyone say "Killed Kenny" during South Park's prediction market episode?
8 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 24, 2025$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-22?
7 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 22, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?
7 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 22, 2025$0.00
$-2.22
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
6 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 29, 2025$0.00
$-3.19
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
6 shares @ 58.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 22, 2025$0.00
$-3.58
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
6 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 27, 2025$0.00
$-2.88
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
5 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 29, 2025$0.00
$-4.45
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
4 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 22, 2025$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$5.74Oct 12, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$2.87Oct 12, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$2.00Oct 12, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$0.00Oct 6, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$1.92Oct 6, 22:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$1.92Oct 6, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$1.21Oct 6, 22:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?$1.21Oct 6, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?$1.05Oct 6, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$1.04Oct 6, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 1?$2.50Oct 1, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$4.45Sep 29, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$1.96Sep 29, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$1.50Sep 29, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET$3.19Sep 29, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$2.88Sep 27, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$2.85Sep 27, 00:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$0.03Sep 26, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$1.51Sep 26, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$1.50Sep 26, 23:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 23, 00:18 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 12, 23:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".