Wallet digest

active

Activity score

53/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$235.39

Total PnL

$-112.70

Realised

$-0.40

Win rate

7 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

UNDER
Real Salt Lake vs. FC Juárez: O/U 5.5
125 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026
$124.94
$2.56
UNDER
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 5.5
125 shares @ 99.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026
$110.45
$-13.04
BOSTON RED SOX
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)
48 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026
$0.00
$-47.92
UNDER
Argentina vs. Egypt: Argentina O/U 2.5
31 shares @ 96.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
OVER
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
15 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-7.00
DETROIT TIGERS
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5)
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-9.90
OVER
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
8 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
NO
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
4 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
NO
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

REDEEMSpread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)$11.99Aug 12, 05:18 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)$218.05Aug 12, 05:18 UTC
REDEEMSpread: San Diego Padres (-9.5)$12.00Aug 12, 05:08 UTC
REDEEMSpread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)$12.00Aug 12, 05:06 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Houston Astros (-2.5)$3.80Aug 12, 04:39 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Houston Astros (-3.5)$12.00Aug 12, 04:39 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)$4.01Aug 12, 04:36 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)$207.91Aug 12, 04:35 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)$5.00Aug 12, 04:33 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)$4.20Aug 12, 04:33 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)$11.88Aug 12, 04:32 UTC
REDEEMSpread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)$11.99Aug 12, 04:27 UTC
REDEEMSpread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)$11.99Aug 12, 04:27 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)$5.00Aug 12, 04:22 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)$12.00Aug 12, 04:22 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)$11.99Aug 12, 04:22 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)$11.89Aug 12, 04:17 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)$11.87Aug 12, 04:15 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Houston Astros (-2.5)$3.76Aug 12, 04:13 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)$5.00Aug 12, 04:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

24/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 7 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

review

24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity65 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence23 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry44 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk64 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 24
Avg trade size: $21.11
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 12, 01:59 UTC
Last active: Aug 12, 05:18 UTC
Win rate sample: 7 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:00:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data