Right-Exile
0xfd4d4a0ef57c10531630c9ca323d78369a2cfc11
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$112.84
Total PnL
$-698.26
Realised
$-120.98
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
122 shares @ 81.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$112.84
$14.03
- YES
Will Elizabeth Warren win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
6340 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-6.34
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
257 shares @ 52.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-135.57
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4AM ET
256 shares @ 55.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-141.97
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
184 shares @ 50.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-92.30
- UP
Solana Up or Down - October 21, 4AM ET
172 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 21, 2025$0.00
$-87.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4AM ET
150 shares @ 50.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-75.88
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
101 shares @ 51.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 14, 2025$0.00
$-51.75
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 5, 02:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 31, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 30, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $114.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.