Torn-Participation
0xfd821d146da8086599c1c573693a112ac517a5ab
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$6.76
Total PnL
$-11.83
Realised
$0.50
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
24 shares @ 21.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.40
$-0.60
- NO
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
2 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$2.35
$0.35
- YES
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
20 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Santa Claus" in December?
10 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.90
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
7 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.85
- NO
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition
2 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.34
Recent activity
- REDEEMFanduel launches prediction markets with CME by end of 2025?$0.00Dec 28, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?$0.00Dec 28, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? $0.00Dec 28, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?$0.00Dec 28, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?$0.00Dec 28, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3)$0.00Dec 19, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FURIA win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?$0.31Dec 12, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?$5.00Dec 12, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FURIA win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?$2.00Dec 12, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3)$2.00Dec 12, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3)$3.00Dec 12, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Taylor Swift say "Donald" or "Trump" on The Late Show on December 10?$0.00Dec 12, 19:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$0.00Dec 12, 19:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Taylor Swift say "Swiftie" 5+ times on The Late Show on December 10?$0.00Dec 12, 19:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Taylor Swift say "Donald" or "Trump" on The Late Show on December 10?$0.00Dec 12, 19:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?$0.00Dec 12, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYFanduel launches prediction markets with CME by end of 2025?$2.90Dec 12, 10:25 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner$4.00Dec 11, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner$3.00Dec 11, 20:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Taylor Swift say "Eras" or "Tour" 10+ times on The Late Show on December 10?$5.13Dec 11, 20:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $3.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 9, 19:05 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 28, 16:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.