Defensive-Academics
0xfd8d4130d037d38ba3d1e7e4d89c8f65fe99038b
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
139
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-5.9K
Realised
$27.12
Win rate
100%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 139- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
842 shares @ 68.8¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$656.77
$77.63
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
1089 shares @ 5.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$190.59
$136.14
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
200 shares @ 69.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$167.00
$29.00
- YES
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
1070 shares @ 9.3¢·now 11.9¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$127.32
$27.77
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
200 shares @ 56.5¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$127.00
$14.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 4?
100 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$98.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 53.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$57.50
$4.50
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
100 shares @ 35.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$56.49
$21.49
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$37.50
$17.50
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?
74 shares @ 52.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$36.63
$-1.85
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 5?$15.00Aug 3, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$10.08Aug 3, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 4?$99.05Aug 3, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 4?$16.96Aug 3, 07:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 2, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by July 31?$50.00Aug 1, 19:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by July 31?$30.00Aug 1, 19:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by July 31?$9.70Aug 1, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$10.63Aug 1, 14:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$13.84Aug 1, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$10.28Aug 1, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$12.93Aug 1, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$10.18Aug 1, 14:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$10.59Aug 1, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$10.53Aug 1, 14:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$20.73Jul 31, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$10.01Jul 31, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$10.03Jul 31, 08:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $20.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 13:18 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 07:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.