Wallet digest

active

Activity score

66/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

101

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.5K

Realised

$220.68

Win rate

90%

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 101

YES
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-13?
1429 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
YES
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
1333 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
YES
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
781 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
OVER
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5
672 shares @ 44.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
YES
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-31?
593 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$0.00
$-260.73
NO
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
569 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
OVER
Getafe CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5
529 shares @ 18.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
OVER
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5
523 shares @ 19.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
OVER
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5
461 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026
$0.00
$-225.99

Recent activity

MAKER_REBATE$0.02Feb 5, 00:07 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$7.88Feb 4, 21:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$0.00Feb 4, 21:07 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$8.00Feb 4, 21:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$3.92Feb 4, 21:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$3.44Feb 4, 21:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$2.88Feb 4, 20:52 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$3.68Feb 4, 20:52 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$7.89Feb 4, 20:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$2.40Feb 4, 20:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$4.96Feb 4, 20:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$2.24Feb 4, 20:40 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$0.03Feb 4, 00:07 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$0.01Feb 3, 12:02 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$9.82Feb 3, 12:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$2.25Feb 3, 11:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$5.00Feb 3, 11:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$2.05Feb 3, 11:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$1.80Feb 3, 11:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$0.45Feb 3, 11:45 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

33/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

90% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry39 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $4.40
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Feb 2, 00:10 UTC
Last active: Feb 5, 00:07 UTC
Win rate sample: 10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 11:53:06 UTC·src:Polymarket Data