Wallet digest

active

Activity score

45/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-246.26

Realised

$-61.61

Win rate

36%

11 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 58

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
1800 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.80
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
189 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
118 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026
$0.00
$-8.40
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
117 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
112 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
83 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
58 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.80
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
55 shares @ 21.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026
$0.00
$-11.92
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8PM ET
50 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026
$0.00
$-2.42
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
40 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026
$0.00
$-2.99

Recent activity

TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by May 31?$49.39Mar 30, 13:15 UTC
TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$3.10Mar 30, 13:11 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?$0.06Mar 30, 13:11 UTC
TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$5.00Mar 30, 01:54 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8PM ET$125.38Mar 30, 00:25 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8PM ET$3.07Mar 30, 00:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8PM ET$115.94Mar 30, 00:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8PM ET$20.00Mar 30, 00:15 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7PM ET$19.17Mar 29, 23:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7PM ET$20.00Mar 29, 23:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4PM ET$1.81Mar 29, 20:22 UTC
TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by May 31?$35.00Mar 29, 20:13 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4PM ET$13.08Mar 29, 20:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4PM ET$15.00Mar 29, 20:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4PM ET$177.38Mar 29, 20:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4PM ET$184.53Mar 29, 20:08 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4PM ET$84.92Mar 29, 20:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4PM ET$72.32Mar 29, 20:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4PM ET$31.03Mar 29, 20:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3PM ET$1.00Mar 29, 19:54 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

33/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

36% win rate over 11 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity43 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence37 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry36 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk42 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 50
Avg trade size: $35.11
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Mar 29, 15:30 UTC
Last active: Mar 30, 13:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 11 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 14:50:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data