0xfde5f6e288a2a94fd65df1e87c348114a800b267
0xfde5f6e288a2a94fd65df1e87c348114a800b267
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$7.66
Total PnL
$-19.58
Realised
$18.50
Win rate
81%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
3 shares @ 16.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.13
$2.63
- YES
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
3 shares @ 18.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.78
$2.28
- STAN WAWRINKA
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils
3 shares @ 13.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.45
$1.07
- YES
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
3 shares @ 18.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.30
$-0.15
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
20 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?
15 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
14 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?
13 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$2.11Aug 2, 20:19 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$2.25Jul 29, 14:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?$2.17Jul 29, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$1.86Jul 29, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 15?$1.56Jul 29, 12:25 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$0.00Jul 28, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$1.36Jul 28, 21:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$2.00Jul 28, 18:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?$2.07Jul 28, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMIran full airspace closure by July 27?$0.00Jul 28, 18:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$1.99Jul 28, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$1.09Jul 28, 13:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$3.95Jul 28, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$1.89Jul 28, 00:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 24, 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$2.00Jul 25, 22:39 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$0.00Jul 25, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$2.31Jul 25, 15:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $1.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 03:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 20:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.