Slippery-Hormone
0xfe2be179d7916a5a1311bf212fa9fbfc720451de
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.17
Total PnL
$-6.8K
Realised
$-15.66
Win rate
45%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
619 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.17
$-0.83
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?
3062 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-247.22
- YES
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?
2914 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-9.29
- YES
Will Trump say "Black Vote" during the Black History Month reception?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?
1822 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-10.77
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1750 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8?
1392 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.39
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9?
1100 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-29.74
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?
833 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 40m?
732 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-9.72
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYLoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier$20.50Jul 29, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers AND Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants$40.00Jul 29, 01:44 UTC
- TRADESELLArizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5$40.21Jul 29, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins AND Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics AND Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels AND Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$10.00Jul 29, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics$30.63Jul 28, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5$7.21Jul 28, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBaltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers$34.42Jul 28, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5$20.46Jul 28, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBaltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers$9.10Jul 28, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers$30.64Jul 28, 14:45 UTC
- REDEEMBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics$79.37Jul 28, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants$10.29Jul 28, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants$40.88Jul 28, 01:14 UTC
- TRADESELLPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$56.62Jul 28, 01:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers$19.47Jul 27, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$30.78Jul 27, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 27, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics$50.92Jul 27, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$40.72Jul 27, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5$40.37Jul 27, 02:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $28.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 00:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.