Attached-Schedule
0xfe41328c99802a1103d74514f71a16b0eee19f23
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
116
Open notional
$6.6K
Total PnL
$-3.7K
Realised
$-1.3K
Win rate
16%
104 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 116- YES
Will the Republican Party win the OH-05 House seat?
600 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$561.00
$9.00
- NO
Will LOUD Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2
797 shares @ 88.9¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$474.29
$-234.36
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?
450 shares @ 83.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$375.75
$2.25
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
518 shares @ 68.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$354.83
$2.59
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?
360 shares @ 90.5¢·now 89.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$320.76
$-5.04
- NO
Will the 49ers win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
732 shares @ 46.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$296.54
$-40.27
- NO
Will the Seahawks win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
800 shares @ 44.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$284.00
$-68.00
- YES
Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
750 shares @ 46.9¢·now 37.8¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$283.13
$-68.63
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-09 House seat?
300 shares @ 91.7¢·now 89.1¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$267.45
$-7.65
- YES
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by December 31?
255 shares @ 79.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$240.97
$39.52
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?$9.90Jul 28, 20:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?$1.99Jul 28, 20:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?$2.80Jul 28, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?$0.03Jul 28, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLIran invades Kuwait by August 31?$194.00Jul 28, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Yemen by July 31?$17.40Jul 28, 18:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?$5.72Jul 28, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?$3.08Jul 28, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?$4.92Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?$9.86Jul 28, 17:55 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?$20.00Jul 28, 17:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the NJ-09 House seat?$177.80Jul 28, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$2.40Jul 28, 17:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?$21.05Jul 28, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump’s remarks not air?$0.96Jul 28, 16:32 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 31?$57.40Jul 28, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$408.00Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$74.89Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADESELLIran invades Kuwait by August 31?$193.60Jul 28, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$3.53Jul 28, 16:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 104 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
104 closed markets, 16% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $75.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 10:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 104 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.