0xfe4446c8f8bfdeace3696b0d84fd8e271fd61eb9
0xfe4446c8f8bfdeace3696b0d84fd8e271fd61eb9
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$2.0K
Realised
$3.6K
Win rate
89%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
18461 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-30.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 1?
2702 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.22
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
1430 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.43
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
1304 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.31
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
1304 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.31
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
1304 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.34
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
631 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.26
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
580 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.16
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
571 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.14
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
567 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.13
Recent activity
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$5.97Jul 22, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$29.44Jul 22, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$29.44Jul 22, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$29.44Jul 22, 01:29 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$30.00Jul 22, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$5.86Jul 22, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$29.44Jul 22, 01:23 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$5.91Jul 22, 01:19 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$0.58Jul 22, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$5.80Jul 22, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$0.57Jul 22, 01:10 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$8.97Jul 22, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$8.80Jul 22, 01:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$30.00Jul 22, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$29.44Jul 22, 00:59 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$30.00Jul 22, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$29.44Jul 22, 00:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$30.00Jul 22, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$0.93Jul 22, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$29.44Jul 22, 00:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
54 closed markets, 89% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $22.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 23:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 01:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.