Winged-Likelihood
0xfe59d9fc1e059ceeb9667a26520e93168bf8425c
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-143.82
Realised
$-1.61
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
440 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?
173 shares @ 16.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-28.42
- NO
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?
91 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will turnout be between 63% and 66% in the Czech election?
46 shares @ 32.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August?
42 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?
36 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August?
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France 2025?
30 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Starostové get between 7% and 10% of the vote in the Czech election?
29 shares @ 34.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Solana dip to $140 in July?
28 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?$0.00Oct 13, 10:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Motoristé get between 5% and 7% of the vote in the Czech election?$28.57Oct 6, 14:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill SPOLU get between 23% and 26% of the vote in the Czech election?$31.25Oct 6, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Piráti get between 5% and 8% of the vote in the Czech election?$0.02Oct 5, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ANO get between 30% and 33% of the vote in the Czech election?$0.54Oct 4, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SPOLU get between 23% and 26% of the vote in the Czech election?$5.00Oct 3, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout be between 60% and 63% in the Czech election?$2.72Oct 3, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout be between 63% and 66% in the Czech election?$15.00Oct 3, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?$10.00Oct 2, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starostové get between 7% and 10% of the vote in the Czech election?$10.00Sep 30, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SPD get between 10% and 13% of the vote in the Czech election?$10.00Sep 30, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ANO get between 30% and 33% of the vote in the Czech election?$10.00Sep 30, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Piráti get between 5% and 8% of the vote in the Czech election?$5.74Sep 30, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Motoristé get between 5% and 7% of the vote in the Czech election?$10.00Sep 30, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?$19.21Sep 16, 17:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Starostové get between 7% and 10% of the vote in the Czech election?$4.85Sep 16, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election?$4.72Sep 16, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Piráti get between 8% and 11% of the vote in the Czech election?$3.64Sep 16, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill STAČILO! get between 5% and 8% of the vote in the Czech election?$2.94Sep 16, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Motoristé get between 3% and 5% of the vote in the Czech election?$3.05Sep 16, 17:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $5.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 21, 19:31 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 13, 10:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.