Critical-Percentage
0xfe5bdb4e99c637c53a7eea83ea1e6b72da6ababf
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-87.05
Win rate
20%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
660 shares @ 49.8¢·now 35.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$234.27
$-94.16
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
153 shares @ 65.3¢·now 97.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$148.58
$48.58
- NO
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?
121 shares @ 83.7¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$116.57
$15.57
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?
114 shares @ 87.7¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$109.99
$9.99
- YES
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?
114 shares @ 87.4¢·now 94.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$107.60
$7.60
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
119 shares @ 83.8¢·now 89.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$106.22
$6.22
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
112 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$103.93
$3.93
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?
114 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$101.14
$1.14
- YES
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?
108 shares @ 93.0¢·now 83.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$90.02
$-9.98
- NO
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by September 30, 2026?
94 shares @ 90.8¢·now 88.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$82.93
$-2.67
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?$100.28Aug 19, 03:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?$126.58Aug 19, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?$100.84Aug 18, 06:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?$105.09Aug 18, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?$100.51Aug 18, 06:53 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?$101.04Aug 18, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?$29.42Aug 16, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?$103.43Aug 16, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$133.01Aug 16, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Internet Blackout in Iran by September 30, 2026?$85.60Aug 13, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by August 31?$100.00Aug 13, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by September 30?$100.00Aug 12, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?$100.56Aug 12, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15?$144.21Aug 12, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?$106.38Aug 12, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?$129.12Aug 12, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?$100.31Aug 12, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?$106.81Aug 12, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15?$25.11Aug 12, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15?$100.70Aug 12, 21:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $96.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 21:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 03:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.