0xfe64c89116c01d7c4dd1d36f06665a59dbf8a76e
0xfe64c89116c01d7c4dd1d36f06665a59dbf8a76e
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$166.18
Total PnL
$-3.46
Realised
$-0.26
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30?
19 shares @ 53.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.23
$4.37
- NO
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
14 shares @ 71.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$12.95
$3.01
- YES
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
12 shares @ 82.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$12.01
$2.11
- NO
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
11 shares @ 87.1¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$10.56
$0.62
- YES
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?
53 shares @ 18.4¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$8.68
$-0.99
- NO
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?
31 shares @ 11.6¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.34
$4.69
- YES
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
7 shares @ 85.6¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$6.85
$0.91
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.21
$0.24
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
122 shares @ 3.7¢·now 4.2¢·exp Aug 10, 2028$5.05
$0.51
- NO
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?
8 shares @ 60.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.95
$0.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi$1.93Jun 23, 10:54 UTC
- REDEEMMallorca Championships (Doubles): Krajicek/Mektic vs Kyrgios/Smith$1.96Jun 23, 10:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi$0.00Jun 23, 10:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi$0.03Jun 23, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYMallorca Championships (Doubles): Krajicek/Mektic vs Kyrgios/Smith$2.00Jun 23, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi$2.00Jun 23, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson$2.00Jun 23, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?$5.00Jun 23, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?$5.00Jun 23, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Portugal (-2.5)$5.02Jun 23, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?$4.99Jun 23, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLSPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23?$2.38Jun 23, 05:32 UTC
- TRADESELLSPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23?$0.03Jun 23, 05:32 UTC
- TRADESELLSPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23?$2.40Jun 23, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23?$2.00Jun 23, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?$5.03Jun 23, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?$5.04Jun 23, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$4.99Jun 22, 22:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026?$2.03Jun 22, 22:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?$28.86Jun 22, 22:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $2.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 09:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 10:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.