Pleasing-Winter
0xfe878485df8ed49ec4019dfe3113035ea0515ac1
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-407.89
Realised
$7.45
Win rate
56%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on April 19?
7179 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-99.72
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on May 14?
700 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.81
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14?
500 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 3?
400 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-3.26
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 13?
329 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 13?
329 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13?
322 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 13?
322 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13?
322 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.29
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 13?
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 13?$109.42Jul 13, 22:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on July 12?$108.13Jul 12, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 13?$0.16Jul 12, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 13?$104.88Jul 11, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 12?$0.96Jul 11, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 12?$0.61Jul 11, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 12?$0.43Jul 11, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 11?$14.91Jul 11, 01:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 11?$19.98Jul 11, 01:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 11?$1.09Jul 11, 01:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 11?$5.45Jul 11, 01:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 11?$19.98Jul 11, 01:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 11?$45.52Jul 11, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on July 12?$52.24Jul 10, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on July 12?$26.87Jul 10, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on July 12?$25.77Jul 10, 15:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 10?$3.77Jul 10, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 10?$9.90Jul 10, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 10?$9.90Jul 10, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 10?$82.39Jul 10, 10:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $23.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 11:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 22:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.