Vital-Backyard
0xfecabe9747591f8c526c723365191294a2d8e166
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$86.38
Total PnL
$-617.69
Realised
$-6.37
Win rate
7%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 14?
50 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$45.00
$0.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?
60 shares @ 49.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$30.90
$1.50
- NO
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?
12 shares @ 89.0¢·now 87.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.48
$-0.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 10?
300 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 22?
178 shares @ 89.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-157.98
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21?
166 shares @ 62.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-103.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?
95 shares @ 46.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-44.45
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 10?
71 shares @ 82.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-58.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?
70 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-30.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on August 1?
66 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.47
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 13?$30.00Aug 13, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 13?$40.00Aug 13, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?$4.90Aug 13, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?$7.82Aug 13, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?$3.92Aug 13, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?$7.91Aug 13, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?$2.40Aug 13, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 14?$44.74Aug 13, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?$2.45Aug 13, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 13?$10.04Aug 13, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 13?$7.96Aug 13, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 13?$18.00Aug 13, 05:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 13?$0.17Aug 13, 05:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 13?$0.58Aug 13, 05:26 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?$0.00Aug 13, 05:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 13?$4.78Aug 13, 05:22 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?$0.00Aug 13, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 13?$23.88Aug 13, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 13?$7.00Aug 13, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 13?$8.90Aug 13, 01:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $12.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 9, 16:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 16:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.