Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

188

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.7K

Realised

$-781.00

Win rate

187 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 188

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
200 shares @ 26.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026
$0.00
$-53.68
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
156 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
122 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
106 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$1.07Aug 16, 06:24 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$0.00Aug 16, 06:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$1.06Aug 16, 06:13 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$2.70Aug 16, 06:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$1.04Aug 16, 05:55 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET$1.07Aug 16, 04:29 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$1.19Aug 16, 03:19 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$2.22Aug 16, 03:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$1.01Aug 16, 02:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$1.01Aug 16, 02:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$1.01Aug 16, 02:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$1.03Aug 13, 13:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.07Aug 13, 13:23 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$4.00Aug 13, 12:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$1.05Aug 13, 12:31 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$1.18Aug 13, 12:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$1.01Aug 13, 12:18 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$2.07Aug 13, 12:13 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$1.69Aug 13, 12:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.00Aug 13, 12:07 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

2% win rate over 187 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

187 closed markets, 2% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity68 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry58 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk23 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 35
Avg trade size: $1.46
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 9, 04:06 UTC
Last active: Aug 16, 06:24 UTC
Win rate sample: 187 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:18:32 UTC·src:Polymarket Data