0xfefaf44054fb92d87882f2bd24bddbd163487bed
0xfefaf44054fb92d87882f2bd24bddbd163487bed
Wallet digest
Activity score
25/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.3K
Realised
$3.4K
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win 2nd place in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?
23020 shares @ 17.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2022$0.00
$-4.0K
- NO
Will any Russian bank be disconnected from SWIFT by April 1?
6265 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2022$0.00
$-289.99
- NO
Will John Fetterman win the Democratic nomination for the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?
5403 shares @ 46.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2022$0.00
$-2.5K
- YES
Will Conor Lamb win the Democratic nomination for the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?
3631 shares @ 46.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2022$0.00
$-1.7K
- NO
Will Macron win round 2 of the 2022 French presidential election with 54% or more of the votes?
285 shares @ 31.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2022$0.00
$-90.00
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.