Black-Beard
0xff2ca508ad5e52156335ee4b8b96c7816e4ae8ff
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$42.47
Total PnL
$-38.73
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
34 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$33.90
$13.90
- NO
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026?
9 shares @ 35.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$8.57
$5.57
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?
323 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?
102 shares @ 19.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.30
- YES
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
87 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.90
- NO
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?
78 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?
57 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
37 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$0.00Mar 3, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the government shutdown last 7 days or more?$0.00Feb 9, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$3.00Feb 9, 23:19 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 3?$0.00Feb 9, 23:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?$0.00Feb 8, 19:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?$0.00Feb 8, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?$5.00Feb 3, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Submarine" or "Helicopter" this week? (February 8)$3.00Feb 3, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?$3.00Feb 3, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?$4.00Feb 3, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 3?$5.00Feb 3, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Feb 3, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?$10.00Feb 3, 00:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Germany by Feburary 1?$0.00Feb 3, 00:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1?$0.00Feb 3, 00:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1?$0.00Feb 3, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 7 days or more?$5.00Feb 2, 06:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$0.00Feb 2, 06:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?$28.33Feb 2, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$1.00Jan 28, 19:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $6.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 11, 17:07 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 3, 20:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.