Wallet digest

active

Activity score

40/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-209.67

Realised

$-111.31

Win rate

27%

11 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 14

YES
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 10-17?
62 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2025
$0.00
$-7.30
YES
Will the January unemployment rate be 4.3% or higher?
60 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2025
$0.00
$-16.39
YES
Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in 2024?
50 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024
$0.00
$-1.26
YES
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 10-17?
50 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2025
$0.00
$-16.00
NO
Will Game 8 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?
50 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2024
$0.00
$-9.40
YES
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 10-17?
50 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2025
$0.00
$-3.75
YES
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 10-17?
50 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2025
$0.00
$-3.75
YES
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 8 of the World Chess Championship?
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2024
$0.00
$-3.00
YES
Will Solana hit $300 in December?
50 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2025
$0.00
$-16.00
YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?
50 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2025
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

REDEEMMike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel?$0.34Feb 27, 03:25 UTC
REDEEMTexans vs. Titans$0.88Feb 27, 03:25 UTC
REDEEMWill Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?$0.81Feb 27, 03:25 UTC
REWARD$0.59Feb 6, 00:00 UTC
TRADESELLWill the January unemployment rate be 4.2%? $16.00Feb 5, 19:36 UTC
TRADESELLWill the January unemployment rate be 4.1%? $17.50Feb 5, 19:35 UTC
TRADESELLWill the January unemployment rate be less than or equal to 4.0%? $8.00Feb 5, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the January unemployment rate be 4.1%? $16.50Feb 5, 11:09 UTC
TRADESELLWill the January unemployment rate be 4.1%? $17.00Feb 5, 09:27 UTC
REWARD$0.53Feb 5, 00:00 UTC
REWARD$0.45Feb 4, 00:00 UTC
TRADESELLWill Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?$5.99Feb 3, 16:50 UTC
REWARD$0.58Feb 3, 00:00 UTC
REWARD$0.33Feb 2, 00:00 UTC
REWARD$0.52Feb 1, 00:00 UTC
TRADESELLWill Saudi Arabia recognize Syrian government by March 31?$5.82Jan 31, 00:05 UTC
REWARD$0.34Jan 31, 00:00 UTC
REWARD$0.61Jan 30, 00:00 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the January unemployment rate be 4.1%? $14.00Jan 29, 18:55 UTC
REWARD$0.56Jan 29, 00:00 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

30/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

27% win rate over 11 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity36 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence37 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry14 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk40 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 27
Avg trade size: $16.34
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jan 17, 16:06 UTC
Last active: Feb 27, 03:25 UTC
Win rate sample: 11 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 11:01:11 UTC·src:Polymarket Data