Periodic-Pagan
0xffbd0a0968531e93609fcc93dcf18bb384194fa4
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.09
Realised
$-0.32
Win rate
0%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 21?
80 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 20?
60 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-0.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on March 22?
30 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 22?
25 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C or below on March 22?
20 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on March 22?
15 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 21?
12 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on March 22?
10 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.04
- YES
Will Solana reach $140 March 16-22?
10 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 22?
10 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $130 on March 23?$0.01Mar 22, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Alternative win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$0.00Mar 22, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $120 on March 23?$0.01Mar 22, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Alternative win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$0.00Mar 22, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Alternative win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$0.00Mar 22, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on March 23?$0.01Mar 22, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 23?$0.02Mar 22, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 23?$0.00Mar 22, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moderates win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$0.01Mar 22, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on March 22?$0.00Mar 22, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on March 22?$0.00Mar 22, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on March 23?$0.01Mar 22, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 23?$0.01Mar 22, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C or below on March 22?$0.00Mar 22, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C or below on March 22?$0.00Mar 22, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 23?$0.00Mar 22, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C or below on March 22?$0.00Mar 22, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C or below on March 22?$0.00Mar 22, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 22?$0.01Mar 22, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $100 on March 22?$0.01Mar 22, 08:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 22, 07:04 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 22, 09:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.