Frosty-Downfall
0xffe10d47f95150c2a6e1631d33879622e42c2b90
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$26.06
Total PnL
$-0.44
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
13 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$12.82
$2.82
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$10.00
$5.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$1.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
1 shares @ 93.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$1.07
$0.07
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
1 shares @ 97.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?
3 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?
2 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?
2 shares @ 56.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUSD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?$1.00Feb 11, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?$1.00Jan 5, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?$1.00Jan 5, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?$1.00Jan 5, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?$1.00Jan 2, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?$1.00Jan 2, 12:22 UTC
- SPLITFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$10.00Dec 22, 12:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?$1.00Nov 27, 11:29 UTC
- REDEEMMonad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?$11.24Nov 27, 11:29 UTC
- SPLITWill The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?$1.00Nov 16, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYMonad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?$10.00Nov 4, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYMegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?$10.00Nov 4, 14:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$85.86Nov 7, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$52.72Oct 17, 12:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $8.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 17, 12:53 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 11, 12:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.