Obvious-Forum
0xffe98c336531c4fa421aa54311ed76c860d421f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-732.35
Realised
$-89.80
Win rate
0%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 4?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 24?
333 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-9.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 24?
301 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 25?
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 3?
242 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 3?
196 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 6?
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 25?
150 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 2?
132 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 14?
127 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 23?$1.02Jul 22, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?$1.02Jul 22, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?$1.02Jul 22, 12:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 22?$1.85Jul 22, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 22?$1.03Jul 22, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on July 22?$1.02Jul 22, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 23?$1.02Jul 22, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 22?$1.02Jul 22, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 22?$1.02Jul 22, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 23?$1.02Jul 22, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 24?$1.02Jul 22, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 23?$1.02Jul 22, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 23?$1.02Jul 22, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 22?$1.02Jul 22, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 22?$1.02Jul 22, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 22?$1.03Jul 22, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 22?$1.02Jul 22, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 22?$1.02Jul 22, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 23?$1.02Jul 22, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 24?$1.02Jul 22, 05:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.
30 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 23:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 12:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.